The Cocktail Report (sound really smart around your friends):
An Australian-led study followed more than 12,000 people aged 65-plus for 14 years, using data from ASPREE, a trial that originally tested aspirin in seniors.
Participants who later had a heart event were already losing ground on everyday tasks such as climbing stairs and carrying grocery bags.
The slide steepened sharply over the final five years.
Ahead of heart failure and death from coronary artery disease, function gaps appeared at least ten years out.
For heart attack and stroke, they appeared closer to the event.
If you have started pausing on the stairs or handing the heavy grocery bags to someone else, your doctor may want to hear about it. A study published in JAMA Cardiology found that everyday physical decline can show up years before a first heart attack, stroke, or heart failure diagnosis.
The finding comes from Monash University researchers working with ASPREE, a large Australian trial of aspirin in people over 65. The study enrolled more than 12,000 adults who were 65 or older and heart-disease-free at the outset.
Every year the team scored four aspects of functional health: frailty, overall mental and physical condition, and how well people managed daily life. Over 14 years, participants who went on to have a heart attack, stroke, heart failure diagnosis, or death from coronary artery disease traced a different path from everyone else.
The pattern is what matters. Daily-task ability fell away progressively, and the drop turned steep in the final five years.
With heart failure and deaths from coronary artery disease, the functional gap had opened at least a decade ahead. Heart attacks and strokes drew closer before the pattern became visible.
"Some decline in physical function is expected as we age, but we found the trajectory was different among people who later experienced a cardiovascular event," said lead author Aung Zaw Zaw Phyo, a Monash University public health researcher. "It is progressive and accelerated decline over time, rather than one isolated measurement, that may warrant closer attention."
What this means for you:
Detailed physical function testing is hard to fit into a short appointment, but the study found a simple questionnaire completed in a few minutes captured the changes. Joanne Ryan, who heads the research unit involved in the work, put it plainly: if your ability to do your usual activities is falling off faster than expected for your age, raise it with your doctor.
Tracking changes in physical function could complement the standard risk scores that guide prevention, and could point to earlier intervention. The study itself suggests the questionnaire could give doctors a low-burden way to watch the trend year over year.
A word of caution:
The study is observational, so it shows association, not cause. It cannot show that treating or reversing the decline would prevent the heart event.
The researchers frame the questionnaire as a complement to established risk assessment, not a replacement. The participants all started the study free of heart disease, so the pattern may differ for people who already have a diagnosis.
Why Should You Care?
A free signal that may precede a heart event by years sits in your own weekly routine, and the whole test is noticing whether it is getting harder.
Xinhua, "Physical decline may precede major cardiovascular events by a decade: study," September 28, 2026: https://english.news.cn/20260928/49064f8d21bc4c2facd1e28f3ca9c38f/c.html
Monash University release (via National Tribune), "Physical decline may emerge a decade before major cardiovascular events, study finds," September 28, 2026: https://www.nationaltribune.com.au/physical-decline-may-emerge-a-decade-before-major-cardiovascular-events-study-finds/
The underlying study: Phyo et al., JAMA Cardiology, 2026: https://doi.org/10.1001/jamacardio.2026.3597
