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New study refutes the upper limit of longevity

October 18, 2021

New research published on 29 September 2021 suggests that there is no theoretical limit to human lifespan.
Researchers from Europe and Canada studied multiple datasets of Supercentenarians to better understand the progression of longevity in extreme old age.
Extrapolating from existing data, the team established that the risk of death plateaus in super old age, and that human lifespan is not limited to 130 years.

A new study has demolished the upper limit on human longevity. The research was published in the Royal Society Open Science Journal in September 2021. ‘Maximum human lifespan’ has been a hotly contested topic for years. The oldest human being ever – Jeanne Calment of France – died at 122 years and 164 days old. Her lifespan has largely been regarded as the current ‘ceiling’ for human longevity. Multiple studies completed over the past few years, however, have shown that we might be able to live up to 150 years. The new research aimed to contribute to this debate by analyzing data on supercentenarians (people aged 110 or more) and semi-supercentenarians (people aged 105 or more). Researchers scrutinized records from the International Database on Longevity, which holds data on more than 1,100 supercentenarians from 13 different countries. The team also incorporated datasets from Italian citizens who were aged 105 or above between January 2009 and December 2015. The general scientific consensus has been that the risk of death increases steadily in adulthood. The study’s analysis further showed that this risk eventually plateaus during super old age and remains the same at approximately 50-50 thereafter. “Beyond age 110 one can think of living another year as being almost like flipping a fair coin. If it comes up heads, then you live to your next birthday, and if not, then you will die at some point within the next year,” said Anthony Davidson, the study’s lead author and a professor of statistics at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne (EPFL). The researchers also analyzed datasets to determine whether there is an outer limit to human lifespan. Extrapolating from existing data, the team was not able to detect a limit below 130 years. This means that humans are not limited by the conventional upper limit for human lifespan, which stands at 122 years. The findings of this research were similar to prior studies that have analyzed datasets of the oldest subset of human population. But the team was confident their conclusions were even stronger given that they integrated more data. Despite the positive indications, it may take some time before we see the first human being live to over 130 years and possibly even 150 or more. Even for people who have reached the age of 110 years, the chances of making it to 130 are ‘about one in a million’. “Not impossible but very unlikely,” said Davidson. He thinks it could happen within the century as the percentage of people reaching supercentenarian age continues to increase. Major advances in medical and social interventions will play an important role.

References: https://www.sciencealert.com/study-suggests-that-theoretically-we-should-be-able-to-live-forever/amp

New study refutes the upper limit of longevity

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